Winter in Paradise

Nobody knows how many snowbirds spend the winter on Ocean Isle Beach. We looked for a count from a government, a tourism authority or a university, for the island, for Brunswick County and for the Grand Strand around Myrtle Beach, and found none. What can be counted is everything around them: the degrees, the daylight, the road miles, the days the museum is open.

The short version is good. A normal January afternoon near the island reaches 55.8°F. In Buffalo it reaches 32.1°F, and at Toronto’s airport 29.8°F, converted from Celsius.¹²³ On 13.4 days in a normal January the high there gets to 60°F or better.¹ The town charges for parking only from April through October.⁴ And the beach faces south, so for part of the winter the sun rises over the ocean and sets over it too.⁵

The honest version is longer. This is not Florida. The surf nearby averages 47.5°F in late January.⁶ It rains. An unofficial report put 15 inches of snow on the island nine and a half months ago.⁷ The Christmas flotilla has ended, and the pier was closed for an inspection in October.⁸⁹ What follows is the case for one to three winter months here, with the weak points left in.

• 55.8°FNormal January high near the islandLongwood, the nearest full-quality station, about 10.7 miles inland by our measurement. Buffalo: 32.1°F ¹¹⁰²
• 13.4Days in a normal January that reach 60°FSame station. Buffalo averages 0.7 ¹²
• 15%Winter’s share of overnight visitors to the N.C. coast in 2024The whole coast. No one publishes a figure for the island ¹¹
• 15 inSnow reported on the island, January 31 to February 1, 2026Unofficial. The official figure at Wilmington was 5.8 inches ⁷

Nobody counts snowbirds, but some things can be counted

Brunswick County knows they exist. Its comprehensive plan describes a second-home county that serves “snowbirds living part-time in the Northeast or Midwest and part-time in the county.”¹² It puts no number on them.

The state comes closest. Visit North Carolina’s surveys found that winter brought 13% of overnight visitors to the coast in 2023 and 15% in 2024.¹³¹¹ That is the whole coast and every kind of trip, not snowbirds on Ocean Isle Beach.

The county’s books say the same in dollars. Its unaudited monthly statements list a 1% tax on short stays, with a footnote that it is reported one month behind. So we read the January, February and March rows as stays from December through February. The document does not say so. In the fiscal year to June 2025 those rows held $421,031 of $3,407,272, or 12.4% by our arithmetic. Over the five fiscal years to that point they run from 10.1% to 12.4%.¹⁴

Here is the catch. The ledger cannot see a guest who stays the season. A stay of 90 consecutive days or longer by the same person is exempt from the county’s tax, and North Carolina exempts it from sales tax on accommodations.¹⁵¹⁶ Take one house for 90 days or more and you pay neither. You also vanish from the county’s record. The longer the stay, the less the numbers know.

What the Census can count is houses and residents. About 29% of the county’s housing units are second homes or seasonal homes, the county plan says.¹² On the island the town’s 2025 plan counts 3,290 housing units, 2,030 of them “used for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use,” by Census survey estimates for 2023.¹⁷

Brunswick County had 174,702 residents on July 1, 2025, up 4.7% in a year. That was the fastest growth in North Carolina and the sixth-fastest among U.S. counties of 20,000 people or more.¹⁸¹⁹ Since the Census Bureau’s April 2020 base it has added 38,007 people, or 27.8% by our arithmetic. All of that came from people moving in: deaths outnumbered births by 4,453, by our sums from the Census file.²⁰ The median age is 57.6, the highest of the state’s 100 counties by our ranking of the same series.²¹

• April 1, 2020136,695
• July 1, 2021144,719
• July 1, 2022152,519
• July 1, 2023159,425
• July 1, 2024166,889
• July 1, 2025174,702

See the numbers

Date	Residents
April 1, 2020	136,695
July 1, 2021	144,719
July 1, 2022	152,519
July 1, 2023	159,425
July 1, 2024	166,889
July 1, 2025	174,702

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 county population estimates. The 38,007 is our subtraction ²⁰

The island is small. The Census Bureau estimates 940 year-round residents on July 1, 2025.²² This story uses that figure because it is the newest and comes from the same series as the county’s. The 2020 census counted 867, and the town’s plan lists 1,026 for 2025. The same plan expects “just above 27,000” people on a peak summer day.¹⁷ That is about 29 for every resident, by our division. No one has published a figure for a winter day.

A normal January afternoon near the island is 55.8°F

No station with official climate normals stands on Ocean Isle Beach. The nearest with a full-quality record is at Longwood, about 10.7 miles inland by our measurement.¹⁰ NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals give Longwood an average January high of 55.8°F and an average low of 34.4°F.¹ The same normals put Boston at 36.8°F, Pittsburgh at 36.3°F, Cleveland at 35.8°F, Detroit at 32.3°F and Buffalo at 32.1°F.^232425262 Toronto’s airport is at 29.8°F in Environment Canada’s normals, converted from Celsius.³ By our comparison of the same tables, January near the island is warmer than March in all six. Pittsburgh has the mildest March of them, at 49.1°F.²⁴

• Near Ocean Isle Beach (Longwood)55.8°F
• Boston36.8°F
• Pittsburgh36.3°F
• Cleveland35.8°F
• Detroit32.3°F
• Buffalo32.1°F
• Toronto (Pearson airport)29.8°F

See the numbers

Place	January high
Near Ocean Isle Beach (Longwood)	55.8°F
Boston	36.8°F
Pittsburgh	36.3°F
Cleveland	35.8°F
Detroit	32.3°F
Buffalo	32.1°F
Toronto (Pearson airport)	29.8°F

Source: NOAA NCEI, 1991 to 2020 U.S. Climate Normals. Toronto is from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 1991 to 2020 normals, converted from °C. The differences in the title are our subtraction, and the distance to Longwood is our measurement from NCEI’s station inventory ^{1232425262310}

Averages hide the good days. At Longwood the high reaches 60°F or more on 15.1 days in a normal December, 13.4 in January, 13.9 in February and 22.4 in March.¹ In the five northern U.S. cities the figure runs from 0.2 to 2.2 days a month from December through February.^232425262 Add the three months and Detroit gets 1.3 such days to Longwood’s 42.4. Environment Canada publishes no 60°F count for Toronto. Its nearest measure is days above 50°F, and a normal January has 1.2 of them.³

• Near Ocean Isle Beach (Longwood)
• Pittsburgh
• Detroit

See the numbers

Month	Near Ocean Isle Beach (Longwood)	Pittsburgh	Detroit
Dec	15.1	2.1	0.5
Jan	13.4	1.6	0.2
Feb	13.9	2.2	0.6
Mar	22.4	7	4.3

Source: NOAA NCEI, 1991 to 2020 U.S. Climate Normals, average number of days with a maximum of 60°F or more ¹²⁴²⁶

Then there is the light. On December 21, 2026 the island has 9 hours 54 minutes of daylight. Toronto has 8 hours 56 minutes and Buffalo 9 hours 1 minute.²⁷²⁸²⁹ By our subtraction the edge over Toronto is 58 minutes that day, 40 minutes on January 31 and 16 minutes on February 28. By March 31 Toronto has the longer day, by 11 minutes.³⁰³¹

It is not Florida: the ocean is cold and it can snow

Nights freeze. A normal January has 15.7 nights at or below 32°F at Longwood.¹ The oceanfront at Ocean Isle Beach is probably milder after dark. That is an inference from where the stations sit, not a measurement. The National Weather Service says of Wilmington’s airport, about 40 miles northeast by our measurement: “Freezing temperatures occur regularly between mid-November and mid-March, but severe or long-lasting cold is very rare.”³²¹⁰

Winter is not a dry season. Longwood’s normal January brings 3.70 inches of precipitation on 11.1 days. Buffalo’s brings 3.35 inches on 19.2 days.¹² At Wilmington, the Weather Service says, “Cloudy days are most common during winter, comprising almost half of all days in January.”³²

The ocean is for looking at. The Weather Service’s record from Ocean Crest Pier on Oak Island, about 16 miles east by our rough measurement, has the water averaging 57.8°F in early December, 47.5°F in late January and 56.5°F in late March. The record covers 2006 through June 2014, and the agency says the county’s other beaches, this one included, have “very similar water temperatures.”⁶

• Oak Island, about 16 miles east of Ocean Isle Beach by our rough measurement
• 70°F, where comfortable swimming begins for many people, NOAA says

See the numbers

Ten days from	Oak Island, about 16 miles east of Ocean Isle Beach by our rough measurement	70°F, where comfortable swimming begins for many people, NOAA says
Dec 1	57.8°F	70°F
Dec 11	54.5°F	70°F
Dec 21	53.2°F	70°F
Jan 1	50.7°F	70°F
Jan 11	50.6°F	70°F
Jan 21	47.5°F	70°F
Feb 1	49.3°F	70°F
Feb 11	49.1°F	70°F
Feb 21	52°F	70°F
Mar 1	52.5°F	70°F
Mar 11	55.8°F	70°F
Mar 21	56.5°F	70°F

Source: National Weather Service Wilmington, Oak Island water temperature climatology, from 125,239 observations. The agency says Ocean Isle Beach has very similar water temperatures. The 70°F line is from NOAA’s Coastal Water Temperature Guide ⁶³³

And it can snow. The 30-year normal at Longwood is 0.5 inch a year. Buffalo’s is 95.4 inches.³⁴³⁵ Then came the storm of January 31 and February 1, 2026. The Weather Service’s summary lists 15.0 inches on the island and 17.7 inches at Longwood, in a table it captions “Snowfall reports (mostly unofficial) from various sources.” The official measurement, by the Weather Service in Wilmington, was 5.8 inches, the most there since December 1989.⁷

“Got home last night from cooking out from a buddy’s home and it was fluttering. We got home, got ready for bed, woke up this morning, and boom, saw how beautiful this is.”

Mark Thomas, a resident of the island for eight years, to WWAY, February 1, 2026³⁶

Police closed the bridge to the island for a time, WWAY reported.³⁷³⁶ The Weather Service said “no significant impacts besides hazardous travel conditions were reported.”⁷ In Wilmington’s record, which begins in December 1870, the median snowstorm leaves 1.0 inch, and one of 6 inches or more comes about every 13 years.³⁸

The beach faces south, so the winter sun rises and sets over the ocean

This beach does not face east. The National Weather Service calls nearby Oak Island “one of the few south-facing beaches in North Carolina.”⁶ By our measurement from OpenStreetMap coastline data, the oceanfront of Ocean Isle Beach runs on a bearing of 68.9 degrees, east-northeast to west-southwest, so the beach looks south-southeast.³⁹

In winter the sun rises south of east and sets south of west. On December 21, sun tables for the island’s coordinates put sunrise at a compass bearing of 118 degrees and sunset at 242.⁴⁰ Both fall on the ocean side of the beach line. Sunrise clears it by 49 degrees. Sunset clears it by 7, so the sun goes down just offshore as you look along the sand toward Sunset Beach, not straight out to sea.

No tourism office, newspaper or astronomy source we found gives dates. The county’s tourism authority, quoting Ingram Planetarium, says “late fall through early spring.”⁵ Our estimate for this island is narrower. Sunrise is over the water from the September equinox to the March equinox. Sunset is over the water from about November 14, 2026 to January 27, 2027, or mid-November to late January.⁴¹⁴² It is an estimate from sun tables and a mapped coastline, good to within a few days. It assumes an observer at sea level and ignores dunes, piers, buildings and the far curve of the South Carolina coast.

Orlando is 351 to 438 road miles farther away

Visitors to this coast drive: 87.3% came by personal car in Visit North Carolina’s 2025 survey, all seasons counted.⁴³

So we ran the routes on OpenStreetMap road data, from each city center to the middle of Ocean Isle Beach.⁴⁴ Pittsburgh is 616 road miles away, New York 639, Cleveland 677, Buffalo 786, Boston 851 and Toronto 884. By our subtraction Orlando is farther from each: by 351 miles from Pittsburgh, 391 from Buffalo or Toronto and 438 from Boston. From Toronto, Miami is 595 miles farther than the island.⁴⁴ At a steady 65 mph, 391 miles is six hours at the wheel. That is arithmetic, not routing.

• Pittsburgh616 mi
• New York639 mi
• Cleveland677 mi
• Buffalo786 mi
• Boston851 mi
• Toronto884 mi

See the numbers

From	Road miles to Ocean Isle Beach
Pittsburgh	616 mi
New York	639 mi
Cleveland	677 mi
Buffalo	786 mi
Boston	851 mi
Toronto	884 mi

Source: Project OSRM public routing service on OpenStreetMap data, queried November 15, 2026. The differences are our subtraction ⁴⁴

We give miles, not hours, because the routing service’s times run slow. Travelweek reported in September 2026 that it takes “about 13 hours to drive to Myrtle Beach from Toronto and 15 from Ottawa.”⁴⁵ Downtown Myrtle Beach is 37.8 road miles from the island by our routing.⁴⁶

The other argument is money. It comes from people who moved. We found no survey of why winter visitors pick this coast. AARP reported in October 2026, citing Insurify data, that the average Florida home insurance premium rose to nearly $8,300 in 2025, up 18 percent in a year and the highest of any state. Using a moving-services platform’s data, the same report found that about 45,700 Americans aged 65 and over moved to Florida in 2025 and nearly 44,900 left. South Carolina, Texas and North Carolina led the net gains.⁴⁷ Demographers have a name for Northerners who retire to Florida and then move halfway back: halfbacks.⁴⁸

“Many of the things that have made Florida attractive are still in place. People want to get out of the cold, they like to golf, they like the beaches. But we’re not the bargain that we once were.”

Rich Doty, research demographer, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, in AARP, October 22, 2026⁴⁷

Brunswick County’s numbers fit that story without proving it. Nobody has counted how many of its newcomers came by way of Florida.

The case has holes. Florida has no state income tax. North Carolina’s rate is 3.99% for tax years after 2025, which matters to people who move and not to visitors who keep their home-state residency.⁴⁷⁴⁹ This coast has hazards of its own. The town’s plan says the island “remains vulnerable to natural hazards and rising seas.”¹⁷ And the quiet may not last. “It’s getting crowded down here,” Wil Mozingo, 88, of Hilton Head, South Carolina, told AARP in its October 22, 2026 report.⁴⁷

Fewer Canadians came last year. Visit North Carolina estimates 278,773 Canadian visitors to the state in 2025, down 25% from 2024.⁵⁰

What is open, what is free and what has ended

Ocean Isle Beach keeps short hours in winter. Its museum and the planetarium in Sunset Beach open Thursday to Saturday, the museum on Sundays too until December 31. Neither lists any hours from January 1 through January 13.⁵⁸ Restaurants thin out. An undated Carolina Bird Club guide warns that “Many restaurants in South Brunswick County close for one or more winter months.”⁵⁹ The museum’s foundation calls a sports bar across the street “one of the few restaurants open year-round.”⁶⁰

Winter is oyster season. The state’s harvest runs from October 15 to March 31 unless it is closed sooner, and Brunswick County is where that usually happens. The state’s oyster plan says the county “typically is closed by proclamation on March 15 annually.”⁶¹⁶² Golf goes on. The museum’s foundation counts “26 area courses within a twenty-mile radius.”⁶⁰

Two things a returning visitor will look for are gone or in doubt. The Ocean Isle Beach Flotilla, the boat parade that opened the Christmas season on the Intracoastal Waterway, has ended. “After much thought and consideration, we have made the decision that the 2025 OIB Holiday Flotilla was the end to a great tradition,” its organizing committee said in a statement on September 9, 2026, quoted by The Brunswick Beacon. The paper says the flotilla started in 2003 and raised $52,291 for Brunswick Family Assistance in its last year.⁸ Holden Beach holds its first flotilla on November 28, and residents have started a boat parade from Sunset Beach on December 5.⁶⁸⁶⁷

The pier is the other. WWAY reported on October 12, 2026 that the Ocean Isle Beach Pier was “temporarily closed to the public until an engineer can inspect the structure.” The station said the pier house would stay open, and that officials had given no reason for the inspection and no reopening date.⁹ As of November 15 we found no notice that the pier has reopened. WWAY’s archive shows no later story, and the pier’s own website lists daily hours and does not mention a closure.⁷⁵⁷⁶ A fishing report compiled at the end of October quotes pier staff on fish “coming over the rails,” which suggests anglers were back on it. That is a hint, not confirmation.⁷⁷ Call 910-579-3095 before you plan a morning there.

We found nothing built for snowbirds: no welcome event, no club and no winter program for visitors, on the island or in the towns around it. The one standing winter activity we found is a walking group run by the property owners association. Its rule is posted: no walk if rain is forecast, if it is raining or if it is colder than 45 degrees.⁸⁵

So nobody counts them, and the island makes no fuss of them. It offers a beach that faces south, parking that costs nothing and a normal January high of 55.8°F. On December 21 the sun rises here at 7:15 a.m. and sets at 5:09 p.m., both times over the water by our estimate.⁸⁶ Nobody will be counting who is there to see it.